Professor Isaac Ben-Israel from Israel says Covid-19 will vanish within seventy days with or without any interventions.
This ambitious claim was premised upon the natural metamorphosis of the virus itself. He postulated that all efforts to stop the spread of the virus will lead to the same result because the virus is “self-limiting”, and climaxes at 40 days before rapidly declining
The Head of Security Studies at Tel Aviv University theorised that his calculations and assumptions were products of the pattern of daily new infections as a percentage of accumulated number of infections.
Meanwhile, he has no explanation as to how the virus dies without any intervention. He speculated it may be due to climate or the virus has a limited life-span that times it out.
He claimed Covid-19 picks up at around 30%, then nosedives to 10% after about 42 days. Thenceforth, it would eventually crash to a level of below 5% a week later.
He strongly believes this is a constant pattern across countries. He said this trend occurs in countries with proactive and aggressive interventions and the ones with reactive and mild interventions alike.
Also, the Daily Telegraph’s own analysis across 20 countries found the peak appeared to be closer to 60 days instead of 40.
In a similar train of thought, Professor Gabi Barbash, a hospital director and the former Health Ministry director general disagrees with Ben Israel. He said death tolls would have been far higher if Israel and other countries had not taken the steps against the virus.
Professor Babak Javid, a consultant in infectious diseases at Cambridge University Hospitals said “To suggest that mitigation measures are irrelevant to the trajectory of the spread of the virus doesn’t take into account the fundamental concept of the dynamics of transmission of an infectious disease within infectious, susceptible and immune individuals in a population.”
He said if exponential growth is untamed, it will go down but that is only the case if a majority of the population are infected.