Nigeria is being touted to become the ninth world’s largest economy by 2100 as the world population will shrink and Nigeria boasting of about 48 million working-age people by then.
The most populous nation in Africa currently ranks as the 28th largest global economy and is likely to witness negative GDP growth this year and gradually improve its ranking to 17th largest in 2050.
Researches further reveal that Nigerian will finally find a place in the world’s top 10 economies as its working-age population swells to 458 million in 2100.
Dr. Christopher Murray, who led the research postulated that this study provides governments of all countries an opportunity to start rethinking their policies on migration, workforces and economic development to address the challenges presented by demographic change.
It is observed is shrinking and will shrink further in many parts of the world.
According to a modeling study by the University of Washington, the world’s population would be far less in the next century than previously estimated, but a lot older, providing opportunities to countries with a young population to boost their economies.
According to the study published in The Lancet on Wednesday,
It is theorised that Nigeria will also have a life expectancy higher than 80 years by 2100 coupled with a population size that is 3.8 times larger than 2017,
The world’s population is likely to peak to 9.7 billion by 2064, but with women having fewer children, the numbers will start declining and stabilize at 8.8 billion by 2100.
At the same time, a little more than a quarter of the global population, or 2.37 billion individuals, would be over the age of 65 and only 1.7 billion below 20, vastly reducing the global workforce.
Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the study said the decline in the numbers of working-age adults alone will reduce GDP growth rates that could result in major shifts in global economic power by the century’s end.
The population of 23 countries including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, is already on course to shrink by more than 50 percent and working age-populations in countries such as India and China would also nosedive.
China’s population will peak in 2024 with 1.43 billion and then decline by nearly half to around 732 million in 2100, becoming the third most populous country after India (1.9 billion) and Nigeria (791 million).
But the population of sub-Saharan Africa will likely triple over the century, from an estimated 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 – as death rates decline and an increasing number of women enter reproductive age.
Dr. Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet opined that
by the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the U.S. the dominant powers.
Horton advised people to prepare for a new-normal of a new world.
Researchers estimated that by 2100, the total fertility rate (TFR) – the number of children born per woman – will be below 2.1 in 183 out of 195 countries, leading to a low global birth rate.
It is cited that easy access to contraceptives and education of girls and women are part of critical factors leading to “sustained declines in fertility rate.”
In order to control the population declines, countries with a low TFR need to prepare immigration friendly policies to increase their workforce.
The new findings are in contrast to a United Nations population report released last year, which calculated the global population would reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100.
It is also being theorised that institutions threatened by the potential of countries like Nigeria and Africa as a continent, may deploy a population control system to stunt population growth in these places.